Escamilla-Guerrero, D., Kosack, E., & Ward, Z. (2025). The Impact of Violence on the Dynamics of Migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution. Journal of Development Economics, Forthcoming.

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Project funded by the 2020 Carnevali Research Grant, Economic History Society

Media coverage: The Long Run · Yale Economic Growth Center

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Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history's deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.

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Published version  ·  Final draft  ·  Data and replication files​​​